On July 25, seven ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Science and Technology jointly issued the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Pilot Work of Recycling and Utilizing Power Batteries for New Energy Vehicles." Service outlets, give full play to the advantages of existing after-sales service channels, and cooperate with battery production, end-of-life automobile recycling and dismantling and comprehensive utilization companies to build a regional recycling system. Do a good job in the disclosure of information related to the recycling of power batteries, and adopt measures such as repurchase and trade-in to promote the recycling of power batteries.

Recycling of used power batteries is urgent

In recent years, with the vigorous promotion of the government, new energy vehicles have gradually become popular in the automobile market, and at the same time, they have also shifted from policy-driven to market-driven. With the full implementation of the new subsidy policy and the double-point policy, market competition has gradually become "white-hot". At the same time, both market growth and investment enthusiasm have shown a high posture. According to statistics, in 2017, sales of new energy vehicles in my country were close to 800,000. In the first eight months of 2018, both the production and sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 600,000. Based on this growth rate, the sales volume in 2018 will exceed 100. 10,000, or more than 2 million in 2020. China's new energy vehicle industry has become the biggest engine to promote the development of the global new energy vehicle market. my country has ranked first in the world in terms of production and sales of new energy vehicles for three consecutive years.

2016-2018 monthly sales of new energy passenger vehicles:

2016-2018 monthly sales of new energy commercial vehicles:

    But behind the large-scale popularization of new energy vehicles, a serious and thorny problem lays in front of us. Since the life of power batteries is generally 3 to 5 years, the power batteries in 2013 to 2015 have reached the obsolescence standard, and gradually began to flow into the waste market. As of the end of June this year, the number of domestic new energy vehicles has reached 1.99 million. Industry experts have comprehensively calculated from the aspects of enterprise warranty period, battery cycle life, vehicle operating conditions, etc., 2018 will usher in the first peak of scrapped power batteries. From 2018 to 2020, the total amount of power batteries scrapped across the country will reach 120,000 to 200,000 tons. There is a more radical view that by 2020, the scrap volume will reach 280,000 to 300,000 tons.

    China's power battery scrap recycling volume (thousand tons):

The state attaches great importance to such large-scale scrapped power batteries, and policies have been introduced intensively, continuously introducing power battery recycling policies, and improving the construction of the recycling system. As early as December 2016, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Interim Measures for the Management of the Recycling and Utilization of Power Batteries for New Energy Vehicles" (draft for comments), which clarified that automobile manufacturers bear the main responsibility for the recycling and utilization of power batteries. On March 2, 2018, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Environmental Protection, the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine, and the Energy Administration jointly issued the "Notice on Organizing and Carrying out Pilot Work on the Recycling and Utilization of New Energy Vehicle Power Batteries 》, it is required to build a recycling system, explore diversified business models, encourage upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry chain to conduct effective information communication and close cooperation to meet market demand and maximize the value of resource utilization, establish a stable business operation model, and promote A large-scale market for cascade utilization of power batteries will be formed.

The recycling policies announced over the years are as follows:

(Data source: Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, etc., Orient Securities Research Institute)

At present, two common methods "echelon utilization and resource regeneration" are commonly used in the market. They are distinguished according to the capacity of lithium batteries. Recycle below the capacity. Generally speaking, cascade utilization is suitable for lithium iron phosphate batteries, while resource regeneration is suitable for ternary lithium batteries. According to relevant statistics, compared with ternary batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries have a longer cycle life, with an 80% cycle life of up to 2000-6000 times. The Ningde era has conducted experiments at 25, 45, and 60 degrees. Taking into account the use conditions of energy storage equipment, the power battery after retirement can continue to be used as an energy storage battery for at least five years.

Cascade utilization of lithium iron phosphate batteries

The so-called cascade utilization is aimed at batteries that are not scrapped, but whose capacity has fallen and cannot be used by electric vehicles. Refers to the method of unpacking the battery pack, testing and screening the modules, and then assembling and using them.

The average service life of the power battery is 5-8 years, and its performance decays as the number of recharges increases. When the battery capacity decays below 80% of the rated capacity, the power battery is no longer suitable for electric vehicles. However, the decommissioned batteries can be further used in many fields such as energy storage, distributed photovoltaic power generation, household electricity, low-speed electric vehicles, etc., after testing, maintenance, and reorganization.

Echelon Utilization One: Energy Storage Battery

On October 30 this year, China Tower signed a strategic cooperation agreement with 11 mainstream new energy automobile companies to promote the use of cascade batteries. According to the agreement, the two parties will organize and carry out nationwide cooperation in the recycling of decommissioned power batteries, as well as the docking of outlets and personnel, in a planned, step-by-step, and batch-wise manner. The base stations of China Tower are spread all over the country, and the cascade of power batteries has natural advantages in large-scale consumption, usage scenarios, and team support. According to Gao Buwen, deputy general manager of China Tower, China Tower is expected to consume retired power batteries for electric vehicles nationwide by 2020. Up to now, China Tower has used 800M watt-hours of new energy vehicle cascade batteries, totaling 10,000 tons, and installed 300,000 batteries in 80,000 base stations, reducing carbon emissions by more than 80,000 tons.

Data shows that China Tower currently has nearly 2 million towers nationwide, and is the largest user of large-scale energy storage equipment. The configuration requirements are sufficient to accommodate the secondary use of decommissioned power batteries. The tower currently has 1.8 million base stations nationwide, and battery backup requires approximately 54GWh; 600,000 peak shaving and valley filling stations require approximately 44GWh of batteries; 500,000 new energy stations require approximately 48GWh of batteries. In total, about 146GWh of batteries are required. Based on the 6-year battery replacement cycle of the stock station, about 22.6 GWh of batteries are needed every year; based on the calculation of 100,000 new base stations each year, it is estimated that the new power station will need about 2.4 GWh of batteries. In total, about 25GWh of batteries are needed each year.

At present, China Tower’s use of power battery cascades is mainly for computer room backup. It will continue to expand its innovative business models in the fields of energy storage applications and mobile power generation, and continue to improve value creation capabilities. For example: China Tower uses cascade batteries in Jinzhong to achieve uninterrupted power supply for financial institutions and other customers who have high requirements for power protection. It not only avoids the problems of traditional ordinary diesel generators, such as civil disturbance, fire protection, and environmental protection, but also has stronger battery life. , Can provide better maintenance guarantee.

At present, the government encourages battery companies and car companies to cooperate with the tower to carry out trials of cascade utilization of power batteries. At present, 57 pilot base stations have been established for the tower, and they are operating in good condition. In 2017, China Tower further expanded the pilot scale and established a total of 0.3 GWh of echelon utilization base stations in five provinces. In January 2018, China Tower also signed a strategic cooperation on the recycling and utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries with 16 companies including Sangde Group. Partnership agreement. On July 25, 2018, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other seven departments jointly issued the “Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Pilot Work of Recycling and Utilizing Power Batteries for New Energy Vehicles” to expand the scope of the cascade utilization pilot program to 17 provinces, cities and regions (including the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Shanxi Province, Shanghai, Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang Province, Anhui Province, Jiangxi Province, Henan Province, Hubei Province, Hunan Province, Guangdong Province, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Sichuan Province, Gansu Province, Qinghai Province, Ningbo City, Xiamen City) and China Tower Co., Ltd. is a pilot program, and will do a good job in the recycling and utilization of power batteries for new energy vehicles.

Pilot projects for domestic echelon utilization:

(Source: Orient Securities)

Echelon utilization projects abroad:

(Source: Orient Securities)

Echelon use two: low-speed electric vehicles

    Another major area of energy storage batteries is low-speed electric vehicles. Facing the emerging market of cascading use of power batteries, Li Junfeng, president of the New Energy Application Division of Guangdong Mengshi New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., believes that leasing may become the promotion of this type of battery. Main mode. Li Junfeng believes that there are two ways to use power batteries in cascades. This type of battery can be mainly used for energy storage under the condition that the cost of electricity consumption in enterprises has been reduced; if the cost of cascade utilization of power batteries can be lower than the use cost of lead-acid batteries, These power batteries can also be used in low-speed electric vehicles and two-wheel and three-wheel electric vehicles.

    Although the cascade utilization of power batteries has a huge market potential, the obstacles in the process of market development cannot be ignored. Considering the high failure rate of cascade utilization batteries, the shortage of battery repair and recycling professionals in the after-service market will become one of the main obstacles restricting cascade utilization of power batteries.